A new Horizon 2020 project to shed light on the uncertainty and complexity of the future scenarios of European migration

Migration is complex and uncertain. To be effective, various migration and integration policies need to explicitly acknowledge these defining features of contemporary migration processes.

The overarching aim of QuantMig is to produce comprehensive, multi-perspective and robust quantitative migration scenarios to support various areas of migration policy, based on the cutting-edge developments in conceptualising, explaining, estimating and forecasting migration. The project, executed by a consortium of seven leading European migration and demographic research institutions, and led by Professor Jakub Bijak at the University of Southampton, is funded by the European Commission as a part of the Horizon 2020 programme, and will run from February 2020 to January 2023.

Quantitative scenarios offer an excellent analytical tool for exploring different migration futures, as long as they acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of the processes they aim to represent. Preparedness for various migration contingencies requires using appropriate tools for addressing the challenges posed by the barely predictable nature of migration flows. Drawing on the unique expertise of its consortium members, QuantMig will deliver such tools, providing dedicated solutions for describing, explaining and managing migration.

The project will advance the methodology of scenario generation and by furthering the understanding of the foundations of European migration flows. The knowledge base for scenarios will include a comprehensive review of key migration drivers in origin, destination and transit countries, with particular focus on mobility of third-country nationals, various aspects and stages of migrant decision making, and on the characteristics of prospective migrants. Additionally, a distinctive set of custom-made harmonised statistical estimates of migration flows will be derived, and innovative methods for simulating migration flows, describing scenario uncertainty, and providing early warnings will be developed and applied.

Thanks to its quantitative slant, QuantMig will improve migration data and analytical methods, and will offer an innovative assessment of data and scenario uncertainty, directly linking to the current policy priorities. At the same time, the project will offer a clear and honest acknowledgement of the limits of our knowledge on current and future European migration flows.

For more information, please see the project website: www.quantmig.eu .